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Monday, 21 April 2014

Report: Ebola Suspected In Europe: “Broken Through All Containment Efforts”

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The outbreak of Ebola Virus in seven west African countries has broken through all containment efforts and is spreading like wildfire.  

According to Christian Relief groups working in Guinea and Liberia, the number of confirmed infections jumped 15% in just the last 24 hours. In addition, 40 illegal alien migrant workers from the outbreak area, who came ashore in Pisa, Italy, are showing signs of Ebola infection and are being isolated in Pisa Italy because of fever and "conjunctivitis" (bloody around the eyes).

According to the World Health Organization, this strain of Ebola is entirely new and although it is close to the Zaire strain, it is different, thus accounting for false-negative test results . . . . . for weeks!

Those false-negative results meant people who were actually infected with Ebola, were returned to their families and neighborhoods to recover from what they believed was the Flu or a case of food poisoning, only to spread the Ebola further.  The result has been a complete loss of containment of this Ebola outbreak.   With the likely arrival of Ebola in Pisa, Italy, the European continent is now at severe risk.

Italian Health Authorities are DENYING reports about infected workers in Pisa, Italy.  They claim it is a HOAX; but they are not explaining why an entire hospital in Pisa is now under isolation.

Samaritan's Purse is a non-denominational evangelical Christian organization based in Boone, NC providing spiritual and physical aid to hurting people around the world.  They are doing aid work with the Ebola outbreak.  According to Samaritan's Purse, the number of people infected with Ebola has jumped 15% in the last 24 hours -- a staggering increase!

This Ebola outbreak blamed for 135 deaths in West Africa in the past month was not imported from Central Africa but caused by a new strain of the disease, a study in a U.S. medical journal said, raising the specter of further regional epidemics.

The spread of Ebola from a remote corner of Guinea to the capital and into neighboring Liberia, the first deadly outbreak reported in West Africa, has caused panic across a region struggling with weak healthcare systems and porous borders.  "A senior health ministry official told Reuters on Thursday the government planned to stop publicly releasing the death toll to avoid causing unnecessary panic." Others say the decision to conceal new outbreak information is PROOF that containment has been lost and the disease is spreading uncontrollably.

Ebola is endemic to Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, South Sudan and Gabon, and scientists initially believed that Central Africa's Zaire strain of the virus was responsible for the outbreak.  This particular outbreak has struck as follows:

Ebola virus disease, West Africa (Situation as of 16 April 2014)


Guinea

As of 18:00 on 15 April, the Ministry of Health (MOH) of Guinea has reported a cumulative total of 197 clinical cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), including 121 deaths.


To date, 101 cases have been laboratory confirmed, including 56 deaths, 41 cases (32 deaths) meet the probable case definition for EVD and 52 cases (33 deaths) are classified as suspected cases.


Twenty-three (23) health care workers have been affected with 13 deaths.


Clinical cases of EVD have been reported from:

Conakry (47 cases, including 16 deaths),
Guekedou (117/80),
Macenta (22/16),
Kissidougou (6/5),
Dabola (4/4) and
Djingaraye (1/1).
From 11 April to 18:00 on 15 April, 35 new clinical cases were identified, including 10 new deaths.


Contact tracing activities continue in all affected areas including new contacts generated by a HCW who passed away 3 days ago.


In Conakry, 60 community volunteers are assisting the MOH and response partners in following up the 217 contacts currently under medical observation.


Seven contacts who developed symptoms have been placed in isolation as a precautionary measure.


A total 249 contacts are being followed in Guekedou, 76 in Macenta and 16 in Kissidougou.


A total of 36 patients are currently in isolation; 23 in Conakry, 12 in Guéckédou and 1 in Macenta.


Clinical teams from WHO, the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) are supporting national medical and nursing staff at the Donka Hospital to strengthen patient triage, case management and infection prevention and control (IPC).


Training on the safe handling of patients with EVD and the deceased was conducted jointly by the IPC and Logistics teams at the Donka hospital for staff working at the morgue, and for drivers and staff transporting patients in stretchers.


A training of trainers activity for the directors of all 20 Centres de Santé in Conakry is planned for 17 April. IPC training is also scheduled at two community health centres tomorrow.


Numbers of cases and contacts remain subject to change due to consolidation of cases, contact and laboratory data, enhanced surveillance and contact tracing activities and the continuing laboratory investigations.



Mali

The Ministry of Health (MOH) of Mali has today reported that the clinical samples on the 6 suspected cases have tested negative for ebolavirus.


The samples were tested at the WHO Collaborating Centre for Arbovirus and Viral Haemorrhagic Fever of the Institut Pasteur, Dakar, Senegal.


The samples were also tested using real-time PCR at the newly established, mobile high security laboratory at the SEREFO Center for HIV and TB Training and Research, University of Bamako.


Malian laboratory experts from the SEREFO Center, the National Institute of Public Health (INRSP), the Centre National d'Appui à la lutte contre la Maladie (CNAM), the National Blood Transfusion Centre (CNTS) and the Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Science, Technics and Technology, Bamako (FMOS) were trained in ebolavirus diagnosis by staff of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH).


As of 16 April, no new suspected cases have been reported in Mali.


Continuing preparedness and response activities include raising awareness among health care workers and the broader community about EVD and reinforcing personal and community-based risk reduction strategies. The need for strict adherence with infection prevention and control measures within health care facilities remains a key intervention.


WHO is supporting the national health authorities of Mali, Guinea and the Ivory Coast in the planning of a cross-border meeting on Ebola Virus Disease.


Response partners supporting the MOH include WHO, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), MSF, the European Community Humanitarian Office (ECHO), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the NIH and the UN Children's Rights and Emergency Relief Organization (UNICEF).


Liberia

As of 16 April the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW) of Liberia has reported a cumulative total of 27 clinical cases of EVD, including 13 deaths attributed to EVD.


One new suspected case reported yesterday from Nimba County has been laboratory confirmed as a case of Lassa fever.


Two patients remain hospitalised and 33 contacts remain under medical observation.


The MOHSW commissioned a new ebolavirus laboratory today in collaboration with Metabiota.


The MOHSW, in collaboration with WHO and the GOARN team in Liberia, has conducted visits to the John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia and the Redemption Hospital, New Kru Town in Montserrado County, and conducted the first training in case management, triage and infection prevention and control.



Sierra Leone

On 15 April, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MOHS) provided a consolidated report of surveillance activities conducted in that country from 19 March onwards.


A total of 12 suspected cases have been identified during that period.


Two previously reported suspected EVD deaths occurred in individuals from one family who died in Guinea and their bodies repatriated to Sierra Leone for burial.


All of the 15 case contacts have completed 21 days of medical follow-up and have remained well.


The Metabiota laboratory team working at the Kenema Government Hospital Lassa Fever Isolation Unit have received and tested clinical samples from 11 of the suspected cases using 2 different real-time PCR protocols for Ebola Zaire, other viral haemorrhagic fevers and important locally endemic pathogens.


All of the samples have tested negative for ebolavirus and the other pathogens included in the test panel.


Follow up on rumours of EVD cases and active case finding is ongoing in Sierra Leone. Metabiota in collaboration with the MOHS have conducted training of trainers for 75 clinicians and nurses from the main referral government, private and mission hospitals in the 13 districts on EVD preparedness and response at the Kenema Lassa Fever unit. Multimedia community sensitisation activities are also continuing.


WHO does not recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied to Guinea, Liberia, Mali or Sierra Leone based on the current information available for this event.


NEW STRAIN

Using analysis of blood samples from infected patients, however, researchers determined that while the Guinean form of the Ebola virus (EBOV) showed a 97 percent similarity to the Zaire strain, the disease was not introduced from Central Africa.

"This study demonstrates the emergence of a new EBOV strain in Guinea," wrote the group of more than 30 doctors and scientists, who published their preliminary findings on the website of the New England Journal of Medicine.

There is no vaccine or cure for Ebola - a hemorrhagic fever with a fatality rate of up to 90 percent that causes symptoms ranging from flu-like pains to internal and external bleeding caused by kidney and liver failure. Its suspected origin is forest bats and it can be transmitted between humans by touching victims or through bodily fluids.

"It is possible that EBOV has circulated undetected in this region for some time. The emergence of the virus in Guinea highlights the risk of EBOV outbreaks in the whole West African subregion," the report continued.


STATISTICAL PROBABILITY OF SPREAD

An outbreak analysis done by a statistical probability expert has come up with terrifying results.  The numbers below are the output of a model based upon the epidemiology of past hemorrhagic fevers in west Africa, with tweaks and adjustments  to accommodate an urban environment, and to extrapolate for certain other anticipated factors.

These posted probabilities are in no way authoritative, and should be considered a "best guess" only.


Probabilities of unchecked infection at this point, based upon a method of travel, times and frequencies of airline flights to various cities, also including certain assumed volumes of "mixed maritime" traffic between north Africa and southern Europe -  the Probability that Ebola will strike is:


  • 63% in Italy within 8 days
  • 44% in Spain within 15 day
  • 77% in Riyadh/Saudi within 21 days
  • 40% in Libya within 25 days
  • 29% in the US within 28 days
  • 37% in Egypt within 33 days



By the time we get to 35 days, it can be in 25 countries on 4 continents.


35 days after that, nearly every place on the globe within 1000 miles of a commercial airport is fair game.

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Reports of Ebola Suspected In Europe: 'Broken Through All Containment Efforts'